File 05: Migration · Longitudinal Record (2019–2026)
Wanting to leave is not the same as leaving.
Separate survey intention, arrivals, interceptions and returns before tracing the international cooperation record.
Intention versus recorded movementLatest supported material · Autumn 2026Latest comparable period · Not available
What This File Documents
Separate survey intention, arrivals, interceptions and returns before tracing the international cooperation record.
EXPLICITLY IN SCOPE
Intention versus recorded movement. Documentary history, implementation and evidence limitations.
DELIBERATELY OUTSIDE SCOPE
Intention, preparation, departure, arrival, interception, asylum and return have distinct populations. They cannot be added together or treated as interchangeable.
Current Overview
Latest supported material is Autumn 2026. This is descriptive; it is not a comparison period or an evidence-through date. Latest comparable period: Not available.
Latest comparable observations
No comparable observation is established in the selected record.
Italian Interior Ministry Telemetry: 1,197 Tunisian Sea Arrivals & -63.6% Contraction (Jan–Sep 2026)
1,197 arrivals (-63.6% YoY) — Official Italian Ministry of Interior statistical dashboard recording 1,197 registered irregular sea arrivals in Italy of people declared as Tunisian nationals between January 1 and September 30, 2026, compared with 3,290 in the equivalent 2025 period.
Measures registered irregular maritime arrivals on Italian territory of declared Tunisian nationals (1,197 in Jan–Sep 2026 vs 3,290 in Jan–Sep 2025, delta = -2,093, -63.6% YoY); does not measure undetected departures, maritime fatalities, or domestic interceptions by the Tunisian National Guard.
No comparable observation is established in this selected dossier.
Summer 2026 snapshot
DATA GAP · No documented observation is available for Summer 2026 in this selected record.
What the evidence shows
Latest comparable observations and verified developments
FACTAutumn 20262026-09-30 · ISS-MIGRATION-15
Italian Interior Ministry Telemetry: 1,197 Tunisian Sea Arrivals & -63.6% Contraction (Jan–Sep 2026)
1,197 arrivals (-63.6% YoY) — Official Italian Ministry of Interior statistical dashboard recording 1,197 registered irregular sea arrivals in Italy of people declared as Tunisian nationals between January 1 and September 30, 2026, compared with 3,290 in the equivalent 2025 period.
Measures registered irregular maritime arrivals on Italian territory of declared Tunisian nationals (1,197 in Jan–Sep 2026 vs 3,290 in Jan–Sep 2025, delta = -2,093, -63.6% YoY); does not measure undetected departures, maritime fatalities, or domestic interceptions by the Tunisian National Guard.
2019 marks the beginning of Kais Saied’s presidency, not the beginning of these systems or their problems. Preserve the reference period when comparing outcomes.
DATA GAP · A comparable 2019 series is not established by the selected evidence.
Inherited conditions / dated context
2023 context In early 2023, maritime migration departures from Tunisia to Italy surged to historic highs (peaking at 97,065 sea arrivals). European leaders (Meloni, von der Leyen, Rutte) visited Tunis in June-July 2023 to negotiate a comprehensive partnership. ACC-CHAIN-02 · EU–Tunisia July 2023 Memorandum of Understanding & Financial Execution
46% — Yes (Considering emigration). % of Adult Population (Ages 18+).
Arab Barometer Wave VIII; fieldwork 2023-09-13 to 2023-11-04; n=2406; Face-to-face (CAPI); margin ±2.5%; All Adults (18+). 46% of all adult Tunisians reported considering emigration in late 2023.
Arab Barometer Wave VIII; fieldwork 2023-09-13 to 2023-11-04; n=2406; Face-to-face (CAPI); margin ±2.5%; Youth (Ages 18–29). Nearly three out of four youth (71%) considered emigrating in Wave VIII.
Have you taken concrete steps / begun preparations to leave?
53% of potential youth migrants — Yes (Subset of youth considering emigration). % of Youth Potential Migrants (Ages 18–29).
Arab Barometer Wave VIII; fieldwork 2023-09-13 to 2023-11-04; n=2406; Face-to-face (CAPI); margin ±2.5%; Youth Potential Migrants (18–29). Methodological disambiguation: 53% represents the preparation rate among young potential migrants, not total youth intention (which is 71%).
Disaggregated Public Data on Third-Country Migrant Repatriation and Transit
Disaggregated, itemized data detailing the voluntary vs involuntary status, country of origin, and destination transit arrangements for migrants intercepted along maritime and land borders is not published systematically by state agencies.
41% — Yes (All adults). % of Adult Population (Ages 18+).
Arab Barometer Wave IX; fieldwork 2025-10-30 to 2025-11-30; n=1023; Face-to-face; margin ±3.0%; All Adults (18+). 41% of adult population express emigration desire in late 2025.
Arab Barometer Wave IX; fieldwork 2025-10-30 to 2025-11-30; n=1023; Face-to-face; margin ±3.0%; Youth (Ages 18–29). Two out of three youth (67%) express intention to leave in Wave IX.
Italian Interior Ministry Telemetry: 1,197 Tunisian Sea Arrivals & -63.6% Contraction (Jan–Sep 2026)
1,197 arrivals (-63.6% YoY) — Official Italian Ministry of Interior statistical dashboard recording 1,197 registered irregular sea arrivals in Italy of people declared as Tunisian nationals between January 1 and September 30, 2026, compared with 3,290 in the equivalent 2025 period.
Measures registered irregular maritime arrivals on Italian territory of declared Tunisian nationals (1,197 in Jan–Sep 2026 vs 3,290 in Jan–Sep 2025, delta = -2,093, -63.6% YoY); does not measure undetected departures, maritime fatalities, or domestic interceptions by the Tunisian National Guard.
What operations were executed by the National Guard Coast Guard, how did departures and interceptions evolve between 2023 and 2026, and how much international support was received?
Open the canonical investigation for its complete sequence, financing status, measured outcomes and causal boundaries.
Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia LEAD_AUTHORITY
Directly led negotiations and signed MoU with Team Europe heads of government.
Causal boundary: Set diplomatic doctrine; ordered return of €60M grant.
European Union (European Commission & EEAS) FINANCING_SOURCE
European Commission DG NEAR & DG ECFIN financial instruments (NDICI, MFA).
Causal boundary: Conditioned €900M MFA on IMF program; disbursed €150M budget support grant.
Ministry of Interior IMPLEMENTING_AGENCY
Statutory jurisdiction over coastal surveillance, territorial waters, and public order in departure zones.
Causal boundary: Conducted physical sea and coastal interception operations in Sfax, Mahdia, and Zarzis.
ACC-CHAIN-08
Presidency of the Republic of Tunisia LEAD_AUTHORITY
Presides over National Security Council; defined state doctrine on irregular migration.
Causal boundary: Determined security framing and high-level enforcement mandates.
Ministry of Interior IMPLEMENTING_AGENCY
Statutory jurisdiction over National Police, National Guard, and internal border controls.
Causal boundary: Conducted coastal enforcement operations and camp clearances in Sfax/El Amra.
National Guard Coast Guard (Garde Nationale Maritime) IMPLEMENTING_AGENCY
Operational mandate for maritime search and rescue (SAR) and sea border interception.
Causal boundary: Executed 81.4k (2023) and 52.1k (2024) maritime interceptions at sea.
What the evidence establishes
ESTABLISHED
1,197 arrivals (-63.6% YoY) — Official Italian Ministry of Interior statistical dashboard recording 1,197 registered irregular sea arrivals in Italy of people declared as Tunisian nationals between January 1 and September 30, 2026, compared with 3,290 in the equivalent 2025 period. Evidence
NOT ESTABLISHED
Intention, preparation, departure, arrival, interception, asylum and return have distinct populations. They cannot be added together or treated as interchangeable.
DATA GAP
No harmonized Summer 2026 monthly departures, arrivals, interceptions, asylum and return ledger is linked here. W9 publication in July 2026 describes 2025 fieldwork, not a 2026 population measurement. Inventory record
Data gaps
DATA GAPDATA_GAP2026-09-13 · ISS-MIGRATION-13
Limits of the selected evidence
No harmonized Summer 2026 monthly departures, arrivals, interceptions, asylum and return ledger is linked here. W9 publication in July 2026 describes 2025 fieldwork, not a 2026 population measurement.
This is a bounded inventory gap, not a claim that no such data exists anywhere.
Canonical provenance is preserved. A named document without a direct URL is identified as such; it is not presented as newly retrieved or independently verified.
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